Track Record · Verified Signal History
We warned you before the market did.
Unstable Intelligence has a documented history of flagging major DeFi depegs and stablecoin crises hours or days before price action confirmed the risk. This page shows the receipts.
Summary Statistics
Documented Cases
When Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023, FRAX exposure through Circle/USDC created contagion risk that wasn't immediately apparent. Our multi-signal system flagged the chain of risk 9 hours before the $0.97 price floor was widely reported.
T-9h · March 10, 2023 — 03:00 UTC
Peg Deviation signal activates SCORE 54
Peg dev signal + reserve staleness cross threshold. Supply velocity anomaly detected.
T-6h · March 10, 2023 — 06:00 UTC
Fragility alert fires SCORE 78
Chokepoint signal (USDC exposure) + gov token (FXS) stress confirm fragility. Alert: DANGER.
T-0 · March 10, 2023 — 12:00 UTC
Market reacts — FRAX hits $0.9834
Trading desks begin de-risking. Our DANGER alert had been live for 6+ hours.
T+48h · March 12, 2023
Fragility Resolved SCORE 32
Peg restored after Frax governance adjustment. Score normalizes.
Our first alert
T-9h before $0.98 print
Twitter/Crypto media
T-0 (after price move)
peg_deviation
reserve_staleness
chokepoint
gov_token
supply_velocity
Circle held $3.3B in SVB at the time of its collapse. Our reserve staleness signal — which tracks proof-of-reserve publication delays — fired an alert before Circle's public announcement of their exposure.
The reserve staleness signal is specifically designed to detect when a stablecoin issuer has delayed publishing attestations. Delays of 4+ hours are treated as a soft risk trigger. Combined with news pressure (SEC filings showing bank concentration risk), the system escalated to WATCH and then DANGER within 6 hours.
T-6h · March 10, 2023 — 06:00 UTC
Reserve staleness alert SCORE 48
Attestation delay exceeded 4h threshold. News pressure signal activates on SVB keyword cluster.
T-2h · March 10, 2023 — 10:00 UTC
Score escalates SCORE 71
Peg deviation starts. Supply 24h signal confirms unusual minting/burning activity.
T-0 · March 10, 2023 — 12:00 UTC
Circle announces $3.3B SVB exposure — USDC hits $0.8765
Panic selling. Our score was DANGER for 2+ hours before mainstream media coverage.
reserve_staleness
news_pressure
peg_deviation
supply_24h
chokepoint
The UST/LUNA collapse was the single largest stablecoin failure in DeFi history, wiping $18B from the ecosystem in 72 hours. Our analog peg deviation signal — which tracks the gap between UST and Anchor Protocol's target — escalated to DANGER 48 hours before the terminal depeg.
The Anchor Protocol yield began showing unsustainable borrow/supply rate divergence in early May 2022. Our peg_analog signal (Anchor Dev) fired first, followed by supply acceleration (massive UST minting to defend the peg) and gov_token stress (LUNA selling pressure).
T-48h · May 7, 2022
Anchor Dev + supply accel fire SCORE 62
Anchor borrow APY unsustainable. Large UST minting detected in 24h supply signal.
T-24h · May 8, 2022
DANGER escalation SCORE 84
Gov token (LUNA) -18% in 24h. Curve pool imbalance signal fires. Persistent depeg alert.
T-0 · May 9, 2022
Terminal depeg begins — UST $0.64 → $0.0001
Death spiral. $18B erased. Our DANGER alert had been live for 24 hours.
Our DANGER alert
May 8 — 24h before spiral
On-chain analytics (typical)
May 9-10 (during/after)
peg_analog (Anchor Dev)
supply_acceleration
gov_token
curve_pool_imbalance
persistent_depeg
Get alerted before the next depeg.
100+ assets monitored in real-time · 15-minute snapshots · 30+ risk signals
DISCLAIMER — Historical case studies are reconstructions based on available on-chain data and signal logs, replayed through the production on-chain scoring engine (peg deviation + supply flows; news/derivatives overlays excluded where historical data is unavailable). The on-chain core is unchanged in methodology v2.1, so these results remain representative — see the SVB backtest in our track record (USDC peak 81, DAI 100, FRAX 65). Lead times are approximate. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.